Poofah wrote:On a large timescale, it's actually less random. For example consider the chances of 'getting lucky' with Crush and KOing a pet in 4 turns. In the old system, you just had to hit 4 times in a row, ie 0.8^4 = 41% chance. That's pretty good odds, ie it favors the player who chooses randomness. In the new system, the chance to get 4 high hits in a row is 0.5^4 = 6%. So it is actually suppressing the effect of luck on the scale of multiple turns.
I do agree that it actually suppressing the effect of luck on the scale of multiple turns, I also agree that the last few hits of a close match are the most random.
I am quite bad at structurally making my point in English. I really should work on it. I should have written "However, the outcome of the matches will be more random for me".
With this I actually mean "The range of their damage has increased, which no longer allows me to reliably calculate the opponents (potential) damage. I can no longer form an optimal strategy based on their damage output, which will make the games more random since my control to influence the outcome of the match has diminished."
It was a alinea about how randomness impacts me. I see how people did not read that, since it sadly wasn't what I typed. I really need to proofread myself when I write in English, especially when I quickly write the post.
I doubt that the average user calculates ahead and thinks of the optimal way to use their cool downs, so that part must have been confusing
I did some number crushing this evening, that felt relevant for Veks question.
I am assuming that Regillixavatar distribution is the current distribution.
The distribution favors extremes. It is almost an inversed normal distribution. Sadly the lower-higher average for Steam vent/Crush aren't given, so I am gonna guess based on his Shadow Slash information. The lower range has an average of 17.7 BA, while the upper range has an average of 24.13 BA.*
This results in 308 dmg (20+(17.7*325)/20) and 391 damage. If you assume that both distributions have the same averages at the same point, one could guess that the average upper damage is 26.8 and the average lower damage is 16.7 These are of course guesses, but it would result in an UA of 455 damage and LA of 291.
The first question that interests me. How does the new system impact the number of rounds needed for a kill?
455*4=1820. Will be a 4 shot, (with chance of a 3 shot, depending on the )
455*3+291*1=1656 Can be a 4 shot (with chance of a 5 shot)
455*2+291*2=1492 Can be a 4 shot. (with chance of a 5 shot)
455*1+291*3=1328 Will be a 5 shot.
291*4=1163 Will be a 5 shot.
Note: The range in damage is 657.
Note: I assume that 1400 dmg = kill.
Note: This is however an extreme situation. It involves a P/P breed, in combination with a 80% move.
As you can see there are multiple ways to reach a 4 shot or a 5 shot, although a 3 shot is not impossible. This makes the outcome of a match-up quite unpredictable. The results won't be extreme with a pet that does not use a former80% hit move and that does not have P/P as breed.
If you plan to use a team for many (100+) matches, you can calculate the potential damage before hand.
Are former 100% moves the better option?
Gahz'Rooki will be a better example, since it has Bite (former 100% move) and Tail Slap (former 80% move). It comes in a mixed breed (P/S), so the results won't be as extreme as the (P/P) Qiraji Guardling.
317*4=1268 (not enough for a kill)
317*5=1585 (generally enough for a kill)
317*6=1902 (guaranteed kill)
One generally needs 5 hits with Bite to kill an enemy.
378*4=1512 (generally enough for a 4 round kill)
378*3+283*1=1417 (possibly enough for a 4 round kill)
378*2+283*2=1322 (not enough for a 4 round kill)
378*1+283*3=1227 (not enough for a 4 round kill)
283*4+=1132 (not enough for a four round kill)
I however would like to know when Bite becomes better.
283*5=1415 (just enough for a kill)
If the opponent has <1400 health (and you only spam Tail Slap), Tail Slap performs similar or better in any situation.
Only in the situation of 4 lower hits+1 upper hit and 5 lower hits will Tail Slap do less damage. Tail Slap is the better choice.
I would recommend moves with variance for most people, especially people with an average or low winrate. I however personally stick with recommendation for 100% moves to people who win a lot, since they make wins more reliable.
How does this impact pets with less power and a less random move?
Lets take a H/H Unborn Val'Kyr with Shadow Slash. It was a 90% move and the Val'Kyr has 276 power.
264 LA, 353 UA.
353*4=1412. Will be a 4 shot (with a good chance of a 5 shot)
353*3+264*1=1323 Will be a 5 shot
353*2+264*2=1234 Will be a 5 shot
353*1+264*3=1145 Will be a 5 shot
264*4=1056 Will be a 6 shot
The first thing that I noticed was that with less power and less randomness a 5 round shot is most likely to happen (88%). The chance for a 4&6 round kill have drastically been reduced when you take away the range/power.
The damage range has been reduced compared to P/P Qiraji.
The second thing I noticed is that I can not tell which move is best for the Val'Kyr for average players, since I do not know the damage range of Shadow Shock.