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Theory on the tail-sweep miss rate

Discuss pet battles, strategy and theorycrafting.
Chimonks
 
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Joined: May 31st, 2013
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Theory on the tail-sweep miss rate

Postby Chimonks » June 23rd, 2013, 3:14 pm

Hey!

I was just thinking to myself a bit why so many seemingly experience a higher than advertised misschance on tail sweep, and considering i do too get that feeling whenever i use it i thought maybe there was an explanation.

See, abilites like tail sweep and alpha strike have an extra attack triggered on a condition (opponent has initiative for the tail sweep, and you have the initiative for alpha strike). Difference is that whenever you trigger the extra attack (or extra damage) on alpha strike, it is put together with the initial hit and the result is one big hit. While with tail sweep it causes an extra actual attack, right?

So, what if this extra attack also has is own chance to miss? I.e 5%. And due to some lazy programming, they still somehow count as one, so with 2 calculations going through when you use the attack, and in this theory a total of 10% chance to miss, if one misses the entire attack counts as missed.

Now, a few things to note.

A) Conflagrate works the exact same way as tail sweep, with an additional attack triggered under a certain condition and a base hit chance of 95%. But i would assume conflagrate isn't used nearly as often and much as tailsweep due to the nature of having to set it up, so any additional chance to miss would largely go unnoticed even if it's there.

B) Someone might have had the pet accuracy recorder addon since it came out and can effectively debunk this theory using actual numbers that somehow show it to have a 95% chance to hit.

Reason i'm even making this thread is because, to me, tail sweep really feels like a 90% hit chance ability, and considering the complaints i've heard about this ability before i assume more people do.
After all, it's just a theory and maybe i'm completely wrong. But i thought it could be nice with another theory except "RNG is RNG". It's the only 95% hit chance ability that feels this way to me. :lol:

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Tuatha
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Re: Theory on the tail-sweep miss rate

Postby Tuatha » June 23rd, 2013, 10:19 pm

Chimonks wrote:And due to some lazy programming, they still somehow count as one, so with 2 calculations going through when you use the attack, and in this theory a total of 10% chance to miss, if one misses the entire attack counts as missed.

I'm not sure about that miss rate, but I know that 0.95*0.95=0.9025, making that a 9.75% miss chance, not 10%. Might seem like splitting hairs, but if you're going to bring math into it, we can at least get it right.

I don't have the add on, and haven't used tail swipe as one of my regular teams in a few weeks. It would be interesting, though, because I've experienced the same feeling of a higher miss rate than advertized on both tail swipe and conflag.

Btw, I used tail swipe on my scourged whelpling, who is sadly a H/S breed and all too often outsped my opponent. It's conflag where I noticed the higher miss rate--but I'm willing to concede that was self-bias, too. If anyone has any data, it would be interesting to see.


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