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Do you feel certain moves miss more?

Discuss pet battles, strategy and theorycrafting.
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Slab
 
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Do you feel certain moves miss more?

Postby Slab » June 7th, 2013, 10:28 pm

I understand the concept of random number generators. I work with statistics for a living. But after watching match after match go south because one 90% or 95% chance move miss right towards the end, and THEN started paying attention, i saw my Enchanted Broom miss FIVE OUT OF SIX Sweeps in the span of two matches.

I'm sorry, but some of the hit percentages are a freakin' lie. There were no weather effects, no debuffs ... just really, really big statistical anomalies. Am I just seeing blind rage, or has there been any evidence of certain moves having ... inaccurate reported hit percentages?

Eutectic
 
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Re: Do you feel certain moves miss more?

Postby Eutectic » June 7th, 2013, 10:58 pm

Someone over on the official blizzard pet battle forum made an adding that tracks each spell's actual % vs the tooltip by accumulating pet battle data

Maybe check it out and decide for yourself?

Klunketh
 
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Re: Do you feel certain moves miss more?

Postby Klunketh » June 8th, 2013, 5:09 am

I had an idol out, no weather, and missed 4 out of 5 smash with 80% miss chance

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Re: Do you feel certain moves miss more?

Postby Eutectic » June 8th, 2013, 6:53 am

If you work with statistics then you know that sample size is too small to be valid.

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Yellowlab
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Re: Do you feel certain moves miss more?

Postby Yellowlab » June 8th, 2013, 8:51 am

Trihorn Charge

I swear this ability misses all the time. 85% I know, but it feels like 60%.

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Slab
 
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Re: Do you feel certain moves miss more?

Postby Slab » June 8th, 2013, 10:00 am

Eutectic wrote:If you work with statistics then you know that sample size is too small to be valid.

Someone over on the official blizzard pet battle forum made an adding that tracks each spell's actual % vs the tooltip by accumulating pet battle data

Maybe check it out and decide for yourself?


Admittedly, the minute I clicked Submit I thought to myself "I am going to have to acknowledge insufficient sample size tomorrow morning." :p That is why I specifically mentioned that I had anecdotal feeling that it was happening even before I specifically kept track of that.

I had heard of the teams addon and the timer addon (which appears to not be caught up to 5.3 yet), but not this one. I will take a look.

I @%@% hate pet PVP. 218 wins to go. (BTW ... Blizzard, give me my overall win/loss record, not just wins! I always want more math, obviously :p)

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Re: Do you feel certain moves miss more?

Postby Eutectic » June 8th, 2013, 11:22 am

At least you recognize that though. Can't tell you how many threads I've gone into this week where someone is absolutely convinced the RNG is wRoNG, but only beause they don't "get math."

I played a lot of XCom prior to getting back into WoW and you get screwed over by the RNG enough, so maybe I'm just biased

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Krallkrum
 
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Re: Do you feel certain moves miss more?

Postby Krallkrum » June 8th, 2013, 1:28 pm

Has anyone ever added in the effect of opponent?...I have 95% hit spells that continually miss against epic and legendary, where they rarely miss against wild pet battles or lower level tamers with rares.

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Memnochlv
 
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Re: Do you feel certain moves miss more?

Postby Memnochlv » June 9th, 2013, 5:22 am

Eutectic wrote:If you work with statistics then you know that sample size is too small to be valid.

While technically it's too small to be terribly useful, 3 is the minimum sample you need for data to be valid. ;> That aside, I agree, I'd much rather see total hits/misses where the total was in the hundreds, then I'd start to expect it's more than the typical (and ever present) hidden if-then-else checks put into all video games I play that check for names I use and reduce the good stuff / increase the difficulty! Or so it seems sometimes, teehee!

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Tiggindy
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Re: Do you feel certain moves miss more?

Postby Tiggindy » June 9th, 2013, 12:30 pm

The hit chance tracker written by Simca (forget the actual name) is a bit shaky. It'll throw lua errors occasionally, and doesn't track several multi-round attacks and has some other weirdness.

However, if it's to be believed, since I've been running it for several days, and have many tamer daily fights under my belt, at least a couple of the 80% hit chance attacks (dive, lift off) have actual rates in the mid 60's. So the feel like they miss an absurd amount of time is sort of being borne out.

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Slab
 
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Re: Do you feel certain moves miss more?

Postby Slab » June 9th, 2013, 4:10 pm

Very interesting, thanks for the tidbit Tigg.

(BTW, is it me or are a lot of addons throwing LUA errors and/or not even updated yet for 5.3? Seems to be an add-on killer update. No TomTom, no NPCScan, and I haven't even gotten the Pet ability timer thing yet because i went looking for it after 5.3 and it's only 5.2)

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Tiggindy
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Re: Do you feel certain moves miss more?

Postby Tiggindy » June 9th, 2013, 10:48 pm

http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic ... 086?page=1 for the discussion of the accuracy add on.

And that's the only one throwing lua errors for me right now, but I tend to not run that many add ons anyway.

Also, FWIW, I just checked and there's a new version of TomTom up, but I don't use that anymore since I know where all the spots are for the Val'kyr and I'm done looking for it for now. :roll:

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Waflob
 
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Re: Do you feel certain moves miss more?

Postby Waflob » June 10th, 2013, 2:09 am

I have had an 80% hit attack miss 3 times out of 4. Soooo frustrating.
I also get the feeling that these strings of unusually bad luck stick in the mind more than the usual RNG. So when the same thing happens 2 weeks later, we all go "this is just a huge pile of steaming smelly stuff - ermergerd !!", conveniently forgetting all the times that it hit, because this is what we expected.

There are probably pychologists here who could explain why this is, using fancy words :-)

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Slab
 
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Re: Do you feel certain moves miss more?

Postby Slab » June 10th, 2013, 8:28 am

Waflob wrote:I have had an 80% hit attack miss 3 times out of 4. Soooo frustrating.
I also get the feeling that these strings of unusually bad luck stick in the mind more than the usual RNG. So when the same thing happens 2 weeks later, we all go "this is just a huge pile of steaming smelly stuff - ermergerd !!", conveniently forgetting all the times that it hit, because this is what we expected.

There are probably pychologists here who could explain why this is, using fancy words :-)


You don't need a psychologist to explain it .. ask a poker player. :D It's a pretty common personality trait that most folks remember the bad luck over the good ... if you get away with a small percentage chance win, you shrug and smile and move on, but if your opponent does, it tends to stick in your craw a lot longer.

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Rellyne
 
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Re: Do you feel certain moves miss more?

Postby Rellyne » June 11th, 2013, 10:43 pm

I do get some bizarre "RNG" miss for 90%+ hit spells (not to mention the ones with "always hit", that actually isn't true, there is a chance to not hit).

The funny thing is... chance to miss of a spell: 20% (80%hit), amount of misses? A lot...

Chance to receive a item in LFR/Coin rolls, something like 20%, amount of loot received? Not that many...

Why can't I get as many loot like I can miss? lol :)


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