Gilneas wrote:I hear they also made Onyxia deep breath more in 5.2. 8-)
^ this. :p
But on more serious note, after 5.2 my stone gain has drastically reduced. Not sure is this really bad RNG or just general nerf to stone drop rates. Prior to 5.2 I was getting 1-3 stones every day and there wasn't many weeks when I didn't get any stones. However, now I've started to get dry seasons of which longest was 5 days without stones. Since that I've started to write down what stones I've gotten, when and from who to see the big picture better. I'm trying not to be superstitious here but with these rates it's getting harder and harder... And to back my paranoia a bit more, I haven't seen a single stone drop from wild pets since 5.2 either.Some math stuff inc, so beware!
Has there been any testing of the stone drop rate from supply bags btw (Fable bag excluded)?
This is purely hypothetical but with 10% of drop chance, the chance of getting at least one stone per day would be ~71,8 % (1 - 0,9^12)
and with 5 % drop the chance would be 46 %
. My experience will probably turn towards the 5 % drop chance but lets analyze it a bit with Wowhead's data: Sack of Pet Supplies
has been opened 124 804 times and a flawless family specific stone has been looted 7 613 times which leads to drop chance of 6%. But stones were added in 5.1 whereas supply bags existed already from MoP launch so Wowhead's data isn't 100% accurate. Because of that lets assume that 20k of those opened bags happened before 5.1 while we also assume that majority of the bags has been opened after 5.1 because of the chance of the getting stones. This will lead to sample size of 104 804 which in turn will give us the drop chance of 7,26 %.
From this data, with 95 % confidence level we can calculate the 95% confidence interval (CI) which basically means we can say with 95% probability the drop chance is between the lower and upper point of the interval. Using the normal distribution we can get that
95 % CI is 7,26 ± 0,157 so the drop chance is between 7,1 % and 7,4 % with 95 % probability
Furthermore, the 99 % CI would be 7,26 ± 0,207 which tells the drop chance is roughly between 7 % and 7,5 % with 99 % probability
So what is the drop chance then? Well, since we can't tell the amount of opened bags after 5.1, we can't say for sure, but based on my numbers above, we can be fairly sure the drop chance will settle between 5 % and 10 %. But to be a bit more exact, I calculated the 99% CIs for the respective drop chances of the sample sizes of ~115k, 105k (the above example)
, 95k and 85k. After that I calculated an average for the lower and upper endpoints for 99 % CI to give us some hint of the drop %. But before the result, one might ask why those sample sizes? Well, as I said above, I assumed the majority of the bags opened happened after 5.1 so I doubt over 40k bags were opened before 5.1 (125k-40k = 85k)
and vice versa, I doubt less than 10k bags were opened before 5.1 (125k-10k=115k)
. This way I tried to estimate that the amount of opened bags after 5.1 is somewhere between 85k and 115k. Well, anyways the result was:7,5 % < drop chance < 7,94 %
with 99 % probability
After this I'd say it's safe to assume the stone drop chance is somewhere between 7 % and 8 %
. And if we come back where we started from, the chance of getting at least one stone per day would be roughly 60 %
Personally I do still think 60% is somewhat high with my experience but how could I argue with my own deductions? :) Easily actually as my statistics are so rusty it hurts. So maybe Poofah or some other math wiz could doublecheck my calculations before anyone starts touting that some Random Joe said the drop chance is this and that. :P