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Lift-Off Ability Misses...

Discuss pet battles, strategy and theorycrafting.
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Shankmcgank
 
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Lift-Off Ability Misses...

Postby Shankmcgank » April 13th, 2014, 12:55 pm

Hi,

Just wondering if anyone else has noticed that Lift-Off (80% base hit chance) misses like 75% of the time. I saw another thread here that was talking about another ability that was OP and hit way more than it was supposed to, and even after they "fixed" it, still hits for around 10% more than it should.

I notice that when Piqua (Taran Zhu) does his Lift-Off, he seems to miss a lot too.

Is this a known issue ? Or am I just having bad luck every time I use a pet with Lift-Off because it seems to me that I miss it, literally, 75% of the time.

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Digem
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Re: Lift-Off Ability Misses...

Postby Digem » April 13th, 2014, 4:29 pm

it misses more than it should.
I never had it miss as much as you but seem to hit around 65% for me which is still bad.
most of the time I use it more to avoid a big hit from opponent and any hits it does I see as a bonus.

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Skavenged
 
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Re: Lift-Off Ability Misses...

Postby Skavenged » April 13th, 2014, 11:06 pm

I've noticed this on similar abilities. Especially Burrow

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Vek
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Re: Lift-Off Ability Misses...

Postby Vek » April 14th, 2014, 2:39 am

It is harder to get a good sample size out of Lift-Off/Burrow/Dive since they are not spammable, with the cooldown they have. And since it is a two-turn move you feel doubly screwed if it misses.

I just treat these attacks like an avoidance move with bonus damage if it hits, never count on it to hit. I think it would be worse to miss a Deep Breath for example since it does not have the benefit of avoidance.

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Jerebear
 
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Re: Lift-Off Ability Misses...

Postby Jerebear » April 14th, 2014, 7:08 am

Added on to the above, trying to statistically verify that the move is really 75% vs 80% requires a decent sample set to get your confidence interval small enough. Those are pretty close values.
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Mojogrow
 
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Re: Lift-Off Ability Misses...

Postby Mojogrow » April 14th, 2014, 8:17 am

Jerebear wrote:Added on to the above, trying to statistically verify that the move is really 75% vs 80% requires a decent sample set to get your confidence interval small enough. Those are pretty close values.


He said it misses 75% of the time, thus saying he believe it to be a 25% hit move (Vs 80%). This is probably a bit of an exaggeration, but it does seem to be, in my opinion, a 50% chance hit move(Or higher and I just have bad luck). I mean that one move, Demolish, hits more often than this... Cyclone unbuffed hits more than this (35% hit chance) it seems like, so I get where you are coming from OP, but RNG is RNG so unless we take a big sample from 5 or 6 of us all using the move 20 times and then seeing how many times it hits, we can't really get a good feel of it's true hit chance...

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Jerebear
 
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Re: Lift-Off Ability Misses...

Postby Jerebear » April 14th, 2014, 9:57 am

With only 100ish data points, you will still be +-10% (additive). You need more like 2400 points to get within +-2% of the actual value assuming a 95% confidence level. For 99% confidence level, you'll need over 4000 data points to get within +-2% of the actual value
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Envec
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Re: Lift-Off Ability Misses...

Postby Envec » April 14th, 2014, 11:18 am

Cyclone 35% to hit my AZZ! The Pandaren Spirit Daily has that thing hit my team at 70% minimum. Been doing the daily for 2 months and it is the only one that I have noticed completely out of whack.

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Kpb321
 
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Re: Lift-Off Ability Misses...

Postby Kpb321 » April 14th, 2014, 11:46 am

I'm not going to say this ability can't be bugged or in some way off like demolish was but I agree with Jerebear in that we need actual data before we can try to evaluate that. One of the things that you learn early on in statistics is that peoples "gut" or feelings are really bad about this type of thing. We tend to notice and remember the anomalies more than we remember the expected results. We also tend to expect randomness to be non-random. Flipping a coin shouldn't alternate between heads and tails in any meaningful pattern but people tend to expect it to alternate heads and tails as it is a 50% chance.

As Jerebear said the specifics of lift-off, a two move turn with a cool down, will make it difficult to gather a large sample to accurately determine if it is hitting the correct % of time. Off hand my gut says that it is probably about right or maybe even a little high as I use a Spawn of Onyxia in one of my trainer teams and if lift off misses I'll usually loose and it doesn't seem like it's 1 in 5 times that I loose and have to retry the fight.

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Jerebear
 
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Re: Lift-Off Ability Misses...

Postby Jerebear » April 14th, 2014, 2:18 pm

I give Vek credit for most of the discussion on trying to sample lift off. I was just adding on about the sample size to emphasize that 100 points isn't really going to do it. And I also am not saying it isn't bugged, but it's not ever been noticably off for me. I use dive and lift off on a lot of tamers. After levelling all my pets to 25, I never got the feeling it was worse than the stated 80%.

Envec wrote:Cyclone 35% to hit my AZZ! The Pandaren Spirit Daily has that thing hit my team at 70% minimum. Been doing the daily for 2 months and it is the only one that I have noticed completely out of whack.


Just remember that cyclone has a 35% hit chance per pet. That means cyclone will hit at least one pet each round 72.5375% of the time
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http://www.warcraftpets.com/community/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8829


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