Waynebrady wrote:I thought the same thing, the prices have got to go down. But let's be realistic, not only is Primordius the 8th boss in, but the drop rate is insanely low. I do Primordius a lot and have never seen one drop. Not to mention Tot will probably not be soloable in WoD so you'll still need a group to kill 8 bosses to even have a very small chance at it.
The prices may go down a little, but not much.
Waynebrady wrote:Agree to disagree. I think the price will drop, but not by any significant means. I'm thinking it will stay in the 75k-90k range, at least. The pet is going to still be very hard to obtain, and no amount of new grouping methods, etc, is going to change that. Sure, more people will be able to do it, but will they? Are they going to take time to clear ToT to the 8th boss every week? Will it be worth it for the non-collector? Meta achivements only need to be done once, and can all typically be done in a single run, especially on old content. Those people won't be running it more than once, or twice. I don't think we'll be seeing a huge rise in the amount of people doing ToT each week. Sure, the numbers of people doing it will probably increase a little bit, but not to the point where we have 5-10 horror's on the AH, driving the price down significantly.
Unless we see some duping, the price is not going to drop significantly.
Waynebrady wrote:Over time more and more people will get it, but that number will still remain relatively small as the drop chance is still really low. If you look at the number of people who have it currently (on Warcraftpets.com) it's 1.2%. That's a really small percentage of people, so the demand for it is really high. Even with the changes coming down the pipeline we aren't gong to see Viscous Horrors everywhere, like we do with the higher drop rate pets from raids. Will there be more on the market over time, of course, but unless they're increasing the drop rate we won't suddenly see an large influx of them, enough so to drop the price significantly.
I think in a year or so that number will probably be closer to 6-8%, but even at that number the demand for it will be still be high. Rocket Chicken for example is a relatively rare TCG pet, and the number of people who have it is small (4.6%), even though the chance to get a card has increased (via the the new TCG set), and it being available now on the BMAH. I know Rocket Chicken is not the best example as you can't run a dungeon every week for a chance to get it, I'm just trying to say that even as they introduce new ways (or easier ways) to get a rare item, it will still be rare for you to get it. The price of Rocket Chicken has hovered in the 50-100k range for a long time, despite it being more available, because the chance to get one is still low.
Look at mounts from Heroic ICC, or Ony, you can easily solo those dungeons every week but the chance of a drop is so small that very few people have it. Caged pets are certainly different than mounts in that you can trade them, I just don't think there will be a lot of Viscous Horrors floating around suddenly because its easy to run, although because of time there will certainly be more available, just not enough to drop the price by 50k.
Waynebrady wrote: but there will always be loads of people wanting to buy it, which will keep the price high.
Waynebrady wrote:I'm glad most pet collectors on here have the best intentions in mind. As you stated before, only time will tell.
Kpb321 wrote:In the end I think it really depends on how elastic or inelastic the demand is for the pet. If the demand is elastic and the decreasing price and increasing availability of the pet on more servers increases the demand then that will help keep the price from dropping quickly. If on the other hand most people just aren't interested in getting it or have given up on being able to get it then the price could drop pretty far as the supply exceeds the demand.
As the heavy pet collectors I'm not sure we are really objective judges of how much other people are interested in the pet or what type of price it would need to drop to for them to be interested. Based on some of the complaints in the celestial tourney threads it seems like at least some of the casual pet battlers seem to be unwilling to spend even a couple k on a pet so that may mean the demand ends up being relatively inelastic as it would have to drop quite a ways for the more casual collectors to be interested.
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