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Question on "Luck"

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Clatong
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Question on "Luck"

Postby Clatong » May 23rd, 2013, 11:54 am

I couldn't find any details on this, and wasn't sure if it was just not well explained or if I wasn't looking in the right spot!

Do we know how exactly the increasing luck works with regards to getting stones from wild pets or bags?

I assume it is character based, and not account wide. If it's character based, would it make sense to save up bags and open at once in case the 'luck' factor resets when that character logs off, or would it only reset once a stone was acquired?

I have yet to play much the past couple days, so haven't had a chance to test any theories.

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Dash
 
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Re: Question on "Luck"

Postby Dash » May 23rd, 2013, 12:26 pm

These are my questions as well. For some of the tamers I usually use an alt that is parked there, but now I wonder what's the best thing to do. If the dailies are account-wide, does the anti-suck system check stone drops account-wide? Seems doubtful to me, but who knows. It's bugging me so I might end up bugging a GM and submit a ticket about it.

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Anasa
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Re: Question on "Luck"

Postby Anasa » May 23rd, 2013, 3:25 pm

We know nothing about the so-called "Bad Luck Protection."

I'm of the ever firmer opinion that there's nothing implemented. I have a feeling they just increased drop rates across the board by a tiny percentage, and told us we were getting "streak protection."

Think about it... It's a buff you can't see, to a roll you don't see, to obtain an item whose drop rate is unseen. (LFR, and rewards from pet battles just "appear" in your bags... So wowhead and others can't really obtain "drop rates")

Until they show me a buff like "Nephalem Valor" in D3, I don't think it exists.

Source: 5 failed bonus rolls. 15 failed trainer bags. 30+ "failed" wild pet battles.

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Chrth
 
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Re: Question on "Luck"

Postby Chrth » May 23rd, 2013, 3:43 pm

Anasa wrote:We know nothing about the so-called "Bad Luck Protection."

I'm of the ever firmer opinion that there's nothing implemented. I have a feeling they just increased drop rates across the board by a tiny percentage, and told us we were getting "streak protection."

Think about it... It's a buff you can't see, to a roll you don't see, to obtain an item whose drop rate is unseen. (LFR, and rewards from pet battles just "appear" in your bags... So wowhead and others can't really obtain "drop rates")

Until they show me a buff like "Nephalem Valor" in D3, I don't think it exists.

Source: 5 failed bonus rolls. 15 failed trainer bags. 30+ "failed" wild pet battles.


We already know that a similar mechanic exists for quest item drops, so I don't know why they would fake it for 5.3, especially since they changed the loot mechanic for the bags to accommodate it.

How it works from what I can tell:
Coins and Pet Battle Bags* have bad luck protection for a character (not an account). After every fail, chances are increased that the next roll will be successful. It may be a simple math of % Chance = 15 + X %, where X equals the number of attempts since last successful roll; conversely, it could be a more complicated equation where the chance doesn't actually kick in until after the streak has gone on. For example, At 15% for a coin, you're expected to win 1 every 6 (slightly less, but close enough for a simple example), so it may not kick in until after failed roll 6.

But the important thing to remember is that Bad Luck Protection is not perfect unless designed to be (in the simple example, after 85 fails you're guaranteed to win). Streakiness is a key part of randomness; my main hasn't gotten a drop in LFR in the last 16 kills (at least; I only noticed when I went 0-for last week). If you actually won 1 item every 6 times I would think the system is rigged.

*Can someone confirm with a blue post/Blizz tweet that wild pet battles are protected? I don't recall hearing that. Even if, 30+ doesn't seem that ridiculous to me compared to the number I've done/won on.
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Celestya22
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Re: Question on "Luck"

Postby Celestya22 » May 24th, 2013, 9:09 am

It's not a huge sampling, but I had saved up 60 bags prior to the patch. From those 60 I got 10 stones (or a 1/6 rate). Prior to the patch I averaged maybe 1 in 13-15.
Since the patch I've only opened 11 - I've been grinding the evil raid pets that have atrocious drop rates! I wish I had protection from no-pet-drop-itis!. I actually got 2 stones from those 11. So I'm pretty happy with the increase thus far.

Again, this is a minor sampling, but I hope it's helpful. :)


edit for Chrth: From the patch notes for 5.3:

Protection for bad luck streaks have been added to Battle-Stones from pet supplies bags and wild battles. Each bag or battle that does not provide a stone has a progressively better chance to award a stone to the player.


I've not yet received one from a battle since the patch either....but then I'd only ever gotten a couple pre-patch so even protection likely leaves it at a 1/1000 chance. lol

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Nomadking
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Re: Question on "Luck"

Postby Nomadking » May 24th, 2013, 9:20 am

Clatong wrote:I assume it is character based, and not account wide. If it's character based, would it make sense to save up bags and open at once in case the 'luck' factor resets when that character logs off, or would it only reset once a stone was acquired?


The "luck" factor resetting when you log out wouldn't make much sense, particularly when you start thinking about other things the system is used for, like LFR rewards. You only get extra "luck" when you did all the LFR's in one sitting? I couldn't see that happening.

The point about it being character and not account wide, is a pretty valid concern though. Unless someone had a Blue or GM reply stating otherwise, I'd be inclined to say it's character based and not account wide. Guess it's time for my main to slog about for pet dailys again... :roll:


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