Anasa wrote:We know nothing about the so-called "Bad Luck Protection."
I'm of the ever firmer opinion that there's nothing implemented. I have a feeling they just increased drop rates across the board by a tiny percentage, and told us we were getting "streak protection."
Think about it... It's a buff you can't see, to a roll you don't see, to obtain an item whose drop rate is unseen. (LFR, and rewards from pet battles just "appear" in your bags... So wowhead and others can't really obtain "drop rates")
Until they show me a buff like "Nephalem Valor" in D3, I don't think it exists.
Source: 5 failed bonus rolls. 15 failed trainer bags. 30+ "failed" wild pet battles.
We already know that a similar mechanic exists for quest item drops, so I don't know why they would fake it for 5.3, especially since they changed the loot mechanic for the bags to accommodate it.
How it works from what I can tell:
Coins and Pet Battle Bags* have bad luck protection for a character (not an account). After every fail, chances are increased that the next roll will be successful. It may be a simple math of % Chance = 15 + X %, where X equals the number of attempts since last successful roll; conversely, it could be a more complicated equation where the chance doesn't actually kick in until after the streak has gone on. For example, At 15% for a coin, you're expected to win 1 every 6 (slightly less, but close enough for a simple example), so it may not kick in until after failed roll 6.
But the important thing to remember is that Bad Luck Protection is not perfect unless designed to be (in the simple example, after 85 fails you're guaranteed to win). Streakiness is a key part of randomness; my main hasn't gotten a drop in LFR in the last 16 kills (at least; I only noticed when I went 0-for last week). If you actually won 1 item every 6 times I would think the system is rigged.
*Can someone confirm with a blue post/Blizz tweet that wild pet battles are protected? I don't recall hearing that. Even if, 30+ doesn't seem that ridiculous to me compared to the number I've done/won on.