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When will the prices stop dropping?

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Goldash
 
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When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Goldash » August 11th, 2014, 12:49 am

Been seeing spammers with "All TCG and Raid Pets max 23k gold each", this includes Viscous Horror and Tuskarr Kite.
I paid 195k for EST, 80k for Tuskarr Kite, 60k for a Rocket Chicken, 50k for Spectral Tiger Cub, the list goes on.

When will the prices stop dropping? should I buy now? or wait till they are 5k each? or less? pretty sure quite a few people would be pissed about the whole situation of limited edition pets. Meh, I say good to see them dropping in price, they should do the same with Vanilla CE, Murky and Tyrael(I don't know how, but $7000 is illogical).

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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Digem » August 11th, 2014, 6:04 am

Goldash wrote:Been seeing spammers with "All TCG and Raid Pets max 23k gold each", this includes Viscous Horror and Tuskarr Kite.
I paid 195k for EST, 80k for Tuskarr Kite, 60k for a Rocket Chicken, 50k for Spectral Tiger Cub, the list goes on.

When will the prices stop dropping? should I buy now? or wait till they are 5k each? or less? pretty sure quite a few people would be pissed about the whole situation of limited edition pets. Meh, I say good to see them dropping in price, they should do the same with Vanilla CE, Murky and Tyrael(I don't know how, but $7000 is illogical).



First off, I would never, ever buy them off of someone in trade.
Blizzard can and has taken things like that away when they do their sweeps of bans on he duppers/gold sellers.
If going to buy them make them put them on the ah, a lot less likely to be taken away from an ah transaction, if at all.
I see these prices continually dropping until the dupping stops.
So if you purchase one it will be awhile before the price rebounds but it will as the duppers move on to new things.
Right now duppers getting near desperation point like they did in cata with the epic gems.
They flooded the market and now want their money.
They do things like this so they have gold to sell on their sites.
Right now they have made the pet market a mess and of course like always blizz is slow to react.

Just be careful and buyer beware.

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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Graven » August 11th, 2014, 7:11 am

Tuskarr and EST are 12k each on Silvermoon EU. I think the prices will recover ever-so-slightly when all the pet collectors return at the beginning of WoD, but will start dropping again shortly after. Not sure what "rock bottom" will be, if you're waiting for the prices to get as low as possible.

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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Poofah » August 11th, 2014, 11:47 am

Unless Bliz does something drastic, the prices won't stop dropping. This has been going on for a year in some cases (cub, EST), and the supply of unsold dupes is massive. They'll just keep dropping the price bit-by-bit to try to sell off their stocks.

But the price only has so far to go. For 20k, you're not going to lose a whole lot even if the price drops another 50%.

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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Triara » August 12th, 2014, 6:44 am

Poofah wrote:Unless Bliz does something drastic, the prices won't stop dropping. This has been going on for a year in some cases (cub, EST), and the supply of unsold dupes is massive. They'll just keep dropping the price bit-by-bit to try to sell off their stocks.

But the price only has so far to go. For 20k, you're not going to lose a whole lot even if the price drops another 50%.


What stock? If these items are duped, isn't the "stock" infinite?

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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Poofah » August 12th, 2014, 9:14 am

What blues have admitted is that these pets are created via 'exploitative means', but they deny that it's duping. I think by 'duping' they very specifically mean what you're talking about: the ability to instantly create a new copy with little effort. If that were the case, then the supply would truly be infinite. So I suspect that the pet-creating exploit takes at least a tiny bit of effort and/or time. If that's true, it's consistent with the way these pets appear on AH or in trade -- they seem to come in waves, then die down a little, then another wave, etc. I think they have to take a bit of time to rebuild their stock.

But, every time a wave hits, a few legit players buy some dupes to resell (knowingly or not). That supply alone is pretty big at this point, since there have been so many waves. Last time I had access to UJ, there were 400+ ESTs on US server AHs, and roughly 1/3 of those appeared to be legit sellers. That's still more than Purple Puffers or Spineclaws, for example. This is mainly what I'm worried about, because even if Bliz suddenly went after the exploiters in a big way, this stock is large and basically untouchable.

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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Digem » August 12th, 2014, 10:24 am

Poofah wrote:What blues have admitted is that these pets are created via 'exploitative means', but they deny that it's duping. I think by 'duping' they very specifically mean what you're talking about: the ability to instantly create a new copy with little effort. If that were the case, then the supply would truly be infinite. So I suspect that the pet-creating exploit takes at least a tiny bit of effort and/or time. If that's true, it's consistent with the way these pets appear on AH or in trade -- they seem to come in waves, then die down a little, then another wave, etc. I think they have to take a bit of time to rebuild their stock.

But, every time a wave hits, a few legit players buy some dupes to resell (knowingly or not). That supply alone is pretty big at this point, since there have been so many waves. Last time I had access to UJ, there were 400+ ESTs on US server AHs, and roughly 1/3 of those appeared to be legit sellers. That's still more than Purple Puffers or Spineclaws, for example. This is mainly what I'm worried about, because even if Bliz suddenly went after the exploiters in a big way, this stock is large and basically untouchable.



I agree with your theory they do seem to come in waves.
And they are getting more and more mixed in with "clean" pets.
This seems to be the gold sellers way of "cleaning" their items/gold.
Kinda like the mon or any illegally run operation way of "washing" their cash to make it legit and hard to trace.
By blizz sitting on their hands so long and not stopping this quicker it has reached the point of no return.
Shame that they let this ruin the pet market.

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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Triara » August 12th, 2014, 10:26 am

Well, I also thought about it and did some searching and there's a simpler explanation than just the process of duping taking some effort / having to be done relatively rarely to avoid detection in some way / etc: the guys who do the duping aren't the guys who do the selling (and they understandably try not to interact much, which means that the "stock" does indeed exists).

Here's a characteristic thread which goes into details (that are allegedly how it happens):

http://www.reddit.com/r/woweconomy/comm ... nt_duping/

(The thread also gives a second scenario: the dupers get constant bans, they need money fast, that's why the prices are low, and they are getting ever lower because the dupers compete with each other / market saturates.)

I am not sure what to make of it. On the one hand, I am against duping, of course. Even if I take a totally self-centric view of it, if I buy something cheaper than usual today, it will become even cheaper tomorrow. On the other hand, I can't really say what is and what isn't duped. Price alone is not a good indicator, some of the cheap items might just be legit good deals - the seller is quitting the game and just wants to trade everything for gold to give it to his guild / friends who are staying (and not interested in the item or already have it), the owner wants a quick buck monetizing real-life money in game, the owner bought the item even cheaper and is reselling it for quick rather than big profit, etc...

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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Digem » August 12th, 2014, 10:44 am

Triara wrote:Well, I also thought about it and did some searching and there's a simpler explanation than just the process of duping taking some effort / having to be done relatively rarely to avoid detection in some way / etc: the guys who do the duping aren't the guys who do the selling (and they understandably try not to interact much, which means that the "stock" does indeed exists).

Here's a characteristic thread which goes into details (that are allegedly how it happens):

http://www.reddit.com/r/woweconomy/comm ... nt_duping/

(The thread also gives a second scenario: the dupers get constant bans, they need money fast, that's why the prices are low, and they are getting ever lower because the dupers compete with each other / market saturates.)

I am not sure what to make of it. On the one hand, I am against duping, of course. Even if I take a totally self-centric view of it, if I buy something cheaper than usual today, it will become even cheaper tomorrow. On the other hand, I can't really say what is and what isn't duped. Price alone is not a good indicator, some of the cheap items might just be legit good deals - the seller is quitting the game and just wants to trade everything for gold to give it to his guild / friends who are staying (and not interested in the item or already have it), the owner wants a quick buck monetizing real-life money in game, the owner bought the item even cheaper and is reselling it for quick rather than big profit, etc...



It plain as day that dupping was happening.
I all started about a year ago back then one was lucky to see one EST or one spectral kitten on the Ah oa a time.
Heck, wasn't almost ever any kites on the ah.
I know this because I was buying selling pets on 6 different realms at the time trying to get all the pets I needed/wanted.
Then over night their was a half dozen or more on each realm that previously would maybe have one at most at a time on sale.
Obviously something happened and don't tell me all those people at once were quitting and all of them happened to have those rare pets.
Which by the way were selling still on eBay and such for over 200 bucks.
B.s. It was the same with the epic gems from cata that overnight people were selling stacks of them yeah right that was legit.
Blizz once again sat by and let it happen because they are so scared of subscription numbers they don't wanna ban.

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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Azaelia » August 12th, 2014, 10:49 am

Duping is something that's always been a big issue with me, I hate the idea of people being able to make as many of 'something special' as they want....Sure it's always well and good for everyone to get everything they want in life, but hey, it doesn't work that way now does it?

I think it's the exact same principle with the game, if we all walked round with High Warlord, Scarab Lord etc. the novelty and prestigious kick that goes with it would be thrown out of the window. I'm 100% certain that none of my pets are duped as I was thankfully able to acquire them a few years ago before this fiasco started off or purchasing legitimate physical cards from trusted sellers so it's a kick in the teeth when you see someone spend a few gold for something I often spent months trying to get hold of.

Now to the sad harsh truth.....

These prices will only drop on the day people stop buying them. Simple as that.... While they have demand, and naive/not bothered people about that are happy to throw a few pennies at them, this will still exist and they will find ways to get around fixes as they always do. People need to say actually, I'd rather wait/earn the real thing, but looking at the size of the community that will never happen sadly...

I say people should take more pride in their own collection instead of racing to beat others to #1. I can look at my collection and smile because I know it was earned even though it's not the best, if true collectors did this a lot of their sales would go. That's all I can advise people and just hope that blizz does something about it.
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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Poofah » August 12th, 2014, 11:36 am

Triara wrote:Here's a characteristic thread which goes into details (that are allegedly how it happens):


Yes, I've looked around for those kinds of threads too. I've found multiple plausible explanations: maybe none are quite right, maybe all of them are true. All of them involve at least some time/effort and risk on the part of the exploiters, which would explain why we see waves and not a continuous supply. Or, as that thread points out, maybe the gold sellers are responding to spikes in demand for gold on particular servers, because they don't want to hold on to large gold stockpiles. Pets are perfect for that sort of liquidity now, since they can be transferred across servers.

Digem wrote:I all started about a year ago back then one was lucky to see one EST or one spectral kitten on the Ah oa a time.
Heck, wasn't almost ever any kites on the ah.
I know this because I was buying selling pets on 6 different realms at the time trying to get all the pets I needed/wanted.


Same for me. I started tracking cubs/ESTs on UJ around January 2013. Those pets concentrated rapidly onto high-pop AHs (Illidan(H), Stormrage(A) and a handful of others) and commanded incredible prices -- they trended from ~200k in January to almost 450-500k in May. There simply weren't enough of them: never more than 20 of either pet across all US AHs. Now there's routinely 400+ ESTs and 300+ cubs (as of last UJ data in late July).

So as far as dupes getting mixed in with 'clean' pets... I think the picture is pretty grim. A cub/EST on AH today is almost certainly a dupe.

Azaelia wrote:Now to the sad harsh truth.....

These prices will only drop on the day people stop buying them. Simple as that.... While they have demand, and naive/not bothered people about that are happy to throw a few pennies at them, this will still exist and they will find ways to get around fixes as they always do.


I agree and empathize about having special things knocked down a peg. For what it's worth, I bought all my pets long before the dupe waves (except cub, which I bought for 180k in June 2013 when I was still naive about the dupe issue). But this is really unfair. It is NOT the fault of legit players who make a choice to buy pets now. If they want that pet ingame, there's no choice. There is no difference between a legit pet and a dupe: for sure there is no way for us to discern any difference, and Bliz have never provided any evidence that they can tell the difference either. So it is impossible for a player to make an informed decision: if they buy ingame, there's always a very large risk that it's a dupe. Even if a player were inclined to avoid dupes, they don't have the ability to do it.

This was entirely Bliz' responsibility to prevent and/or fix.

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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Azaelia » August 12th, 2014, 11:58 am

Poofah wrote:But this is really unfair. It is NOT the fault of legit players who make a choice to buy pets now. If they want that pet ingame, there's no choice. There is no difference between a legit pet and a dupe: for sure there is no way for us to discern any difference, and Bliz have never provided any evidence that they can tell the difference either. So it is impossible for a player to make an informed decision: if they buy ingame, there's always a very large risk that it's a dupe. Even if a player were inclined to avoid dupes, they don't have the ability to do it.

This was entirely Bliz' responsibility to prevent and/or fix.


That comment was only in regard to pets that are currently like 10k for an EST and the cub...where there is something clearly iffy going on. Of course there are genuine cases that people miss, first sets of waves of new dupes and some genuine accidents. Tbh most people that avoid dupes would be kicking themselves at paying 50-80% of a normal price for a duped pet without realizing it. But yes as mentioned, this is an issue with Bliz taking accountability and working on a soltution. I just know I wouldn't intentionally pay for a duped pet, no matter the cost
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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Poofah » August 12th, 2014, 12:40 pm

I see. I guess the trouble is there's a lot of gray area.

Azaelia wrote:I just know I wouldn't intentionally pay for a duped pet, no matter the cost


I wouldn't either,* but when I see EST on AH from 10 different sellers for 20k, what do I make of that? That is more ESTs than were ever on a single server AH prior to May 2013.** But it's routine today. I can look up those sellers and some are guilded lvl 90s, some of the ESTs are lvl 25. The odds are that somewhere between 8-10 of those ESTs started out as dupes, and I have no way to tell which (if any) are legit. Even if I were willing to pay extra ingame to get a guaranteed legit version, I don't have that option anymore.

Anyway, I share your frustration at the whole situation. I just think that for players still trying to get these pets, avoiding dupes is futile and out of their control.


* mainly because once a pet is duped, it's a miserable investment.
** in fact there were days in Feb-Apr 2013 when there'd be less than 10 ESTs across all US horde AHs combined.

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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Luciandk » August 12th, 2014, 4:53 pm

Hrm. I wonder if the wowtcgloot website is to blame here. Since they sell the pet codes, whats to stop crooks from buying pet codes with stolen credit cards?

Then activating the codes and selling the pets to unususpecting buyers in bulk, gaining the gold. Then selling the 'clean gold' to others for cash before their account is banned for fradulent activities.

So it may not be dupes at all.

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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Dragonwizard » August 12th, 2014, 5:53 pm

Luciandk wrote:Hrm. I wonder if the wowtcgloot website is to blame here. Since they sell the pet codes, whats to stop crooks from buying pet codes with stolen credit cards?

Then activating the codes and selling the pets to unususpecting buyers in bulk, gaining the gold. Then selling the 'clean gold' to others for cash before their account is banned for fradulent activities.

So it may not be dupes at all.



The only thing I can see is that its only pets that are being duped at the moment and if it was that then TCG mounts would have plummetted also.
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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Poofah » August 12th, 2014, 5:58 pm

wowtcgloot publishes their quantity sold per month, it's the green trend line in the graph on the top left of each pet's page, for example here's cub:

http://www.wowtcgloot.com/spectral_tiger_cub.htm

If you believe them, they've sold 20 cubs per month steadily since March 2011. No spikes starting May/June 2013 (and no way to explain why they were all lvl 6 anyway). You can click around their site to see the other pets: there's no spikes in their sales that can account for the spikes in EST/cub/RC/Tuskarr/Dragon Kite that we've seen. If anything those pets have mostly trended downward since MoP, which you'd expect if their customers tended to be legit buyers who were now able to find much cheaper options ingame. And wowtcgloot obviously doesn't explain VH.

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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Mehetabel » August 12th, 2014, 7:26 pm

Since I still need a handful of super rare pets, I'm quite happy for the prices to stay low for a bit! :lol:
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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Triara » August 12th, 2014, 10:34 pm

Mehetabel wrote:Since I still need a handful of super rare pets, I'm quite happy for the prices to stay low for a bit! :lol:


Well, what if you buy the pets that you are after for, I don't know, 300k gold, and then the dupers bring the prices down to 50k?

Nah. There are lots of pets that I don't have and would like to have, but I would be happier if Blizzard removed all the duped pets which haven't been sold yet and fixed the hole in the game that allows duping to happen. Or if they have somehow verified the pets to be legit, and loudly said that they are legit, and that's what the prices are now.

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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Digem » August 12th, 2014, 11:35 pm

Luciandk wrote:Hrm. I wonder if the wowtcgloot website is to blame here. Since they sell the pet codes, whats to stop crooks from buying pet codes with stolen credit cards?

Then activating the codes and selling the pets to unususpecting buyers in bulk, gaining the gold. Then selling the 'clean gold' to others for cash before their account is banned for fradulent activities.

So it may not be dupes at all.



so only a surge in the rarest most expensive pets but not the mounts which go for even more.
also how is their now a surge in viscous horrors which are only raid drops?
and last tier on that.
I have gotten 11 legendary cloaks and have cleared that raid threw heroics on multiple toons and have not seen that pet drop or anyone in my guild.
now they are popping up all over the ah when just a few months ago there were none.
these aint tcg loot cards.
something is going on it is obvious

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Re: When will the prices stop dropping?

Postby Digem » August 12th, 2014, 11:38 pm

p.s

their was also a poster on this website that was announcing what pets were going to be dupped next and sure enough a few days after he would announce that pet its numbers would surge on the ah's.
go back and look at those old threads.

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