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3 toons on different servers. Many hours farming. Logged on my 3rd toon last night and it was right next to me. I snagged it and an Orc landed right after I started battle and didn't look very happy with me.
I specifically went to the underwater cave East of the island and took over 250 casts to get the Sea Pony. My sister fished in open waters and got it on her 10th cast. She brought in another toon and got it on her 30th cast in open waters to give it to her husband, who had done over 150 casts with no luck. I personally think it's totally RNG and the cave has no bearing.